DECEMBER UPDATE ON RUSSIA & OUR FAMILY’S LIFE IN RUSSIA

I am offering another update here on recent news and events from Russia. I’ll deal a little with the Ukrainian situation. I will focus more, however, on how things are here in Russia, particularly with the economy. I’ll also include an update on our family. 

The major event going on right now in Ukraine is Russia’s continued cruise missile attacks on the power grid in Ukraine. Ukraine struggled to restore about half the power to the 10 million who had lost electricity, but the next Russian attack was largely successful so quite a bit of Ukraine is still without electricity. 

On the one hand, Ukraine and some of its western sponsors are saying that Russia is committing war crimes by depriving civilians of heat and water. Russia does not deny that civilians are being greatly distressed by the attacks on the system. Nevertheless, as I mentioned in my last blog, these facilities are “dual use.” They provide electricity and water to the bases being used to attack Russian troops. Thus, it is not a war crime for Russia to destroy the grid. Russia responded to the criticisms by saying that the West continues to supply weapons that are being transferred to locations best suited to kill Russians. Russia has a right to try and stop those transfers. If the West wants the missiles to stop, then it should stop trying to aid in the killing of Russians. 

Throughout this conflict there have been examples of what should be investigated as war crimes committed by Ukraine in my opinion. I saw videos from independent reporters like Eva Karene Bartlett and Patrick Lancaster of Ukrainians firing from hospitals and schools, thus requiring Russia to fire back to take them out. Then the cry goes up that Russia is attacking innocents in hospitals and schools. While it is a crime to blow up such a building, it is not a war crime to fire back even if civilians are hit. It is a war crime to use civilians as shields. But no investigation of Ukraine seems forthcoming. 

Others have pointed to the hypocrisy of the U. S. in its accusations. I mentioned that Scott Ritter, who participated in Desert Storm, said that one of the first objectives the U.S. troops were given when they attacked Iraq was to take out the power grid. In 1999 NATO, led by the U.S. of course, bombed the Yugoslavian power grid as soon as it entered the country. The U.S. also attacked the power grids of Syria and Libya. It is significant in my opinion that none of these countries were within thousands of miles of the U.S. border. None of those countries had ever attacked the U.S. There was no existential threat to the U.S. or NATO from these countries. Russia, on the other hand, is defending itself against the U.S. placing missiles on its borders. It is also defending the Russian speaking residents of the eastern regions of Ukraine from the constant shelling authorized by Kiev. 

THE RUSSIAN MILITARY SITUATION.  The U.S. continues to raise the hopes of those wanting Russia’s defeat by claiming Russia is running out of ammo. This week Dimitry Medvedev again showed videos, this time of a visit to one of the main ammo producing manufacturers. The sign behind him said, “Region,” but I don’t know if that was the name of the factory or what. He demonstrated that Russia has plenty of ammo and there are several factories still running strong that are producing even more weapons and ammunition. 

I also think at least some in the West are getting suspicious of the claims that Russia is running out of ammo. I believe two reports in The New York Times illustrate my point. I don’t have a link to the first article because I got it from what Alex Christoforos read on his daily updates on The Duran. I did not get the exact date of the article. It really does not matter because the article was not giving statistical updates. The basic point of the article questioned the accuracy of the information coming from U.S. sources concerning Russia’s ammunition supplies. They noted Western and Ukrainian sources have been saying for some time that Russia’s stockpile is dwindling. Even as early as last May Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Russia was running short of ammunition and artillery rounds. That was 6 months ago! Yet Russia recently launched its biggest aerial attack on Ukraine since the conflict began. The author questioned how Russia can launch these attacks if they have been running short on ammo for months. 

There have been various theories put forth as to how to explain this fact, but the problem remains for the West. Russia continues to fire far more missiles and artillery rounds than Ukraine. The explanation that makes most sense is the one put forth by both Ritter and MacGregor. Russia has been planning on the possibility of military conflict since 2014, and they have been producing the weapons and ammunition that they believed they would need. 

I do have a link to the other NY Times article: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/26/world/europe/nato-weapons-shortage-ukraine.html?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email. In this article the author states it appears that it is the U.S. and NATO countries that are running out of ammunition. Obviously the leaders of the U.S. and other NATO countries did not think Russia would respond with military aggression. They apparently believed that Russia would back down before going to battle or not put up much of a fight. They were wrong. The article states that while perhaps Russia is running short on ammo, clearly the West did not predict correctly what would happen. Russia not only has engaged in military conflict, the battles are, in their words, “chewing up” supplies of not only NATO but the U.S. as well. There is now a “mad scramble” to provide Ukraine with what it needs. In the German version of Business Insider, Eva Hoegl, the German parliament’s Defense Commissioner, stated Germany has ammunition for only one or two days of battle. She said it will take an additional 20 billion euros ($19.5 billion) to replenish stocks. 

The truth is no one in NATO or the U.S. had any idea how much artillery and ammunition that Ukraine would need to fight Russia. It is far more than what was needed in Afghanistan. As Camille Grand, a defense expert for NATO said, “A day in Ukraine is a month in Afghanistan.”  In other words, the Western “experts” did not think Russia would be able to launch a serious attack. When they did go to war they obviously had greatly miscalculated the Russian arsenal. There is an old adage that anyone who has been around the military has heard many times: “Know your enemy.” The U.S. vastly underestimated its enemy in this proxy war it wanted. 

THE ECONOMY IN RUSSIA. When the U.S. led sanctions were put in place in February there were some predictions that Russia’s GDP would drop by double figures. This year the International Monetary Fund predicted on April 1 that the GDP of Russia would contract by 8.5%; in June they modified that to a contraction of 6%; their latest prediction is that it will contract by 3.4%. They predict a contraction next year of 2.3%. As a side note, the GDP of Ukraine contracted 35% this year. 

Goldman Sachs said the Russian economy is healthier than the economies of larger European countries. They stated that domestic consumption is actually up in Russia. The ruble remains as one of the strongest–if not THE strongest–currencies in the world. President Biden was wrong: The ruble did not turn to rubble. 

The West keeps trying to pressure Russia economically with sanctions that are clearly idiotic. They are now pushing for a price cap on the cost of Russian gas and oil. In other words, they want to tell Russia what it can charge for its energy resources. First, NATO sanctioned Russian oil and  gas. That completely blew up in their collective face, so now they want to set the price Russia can charge. This plan comes from people who supposedly are capitalists. It’s like telling the store what they can charge you for their products. Russia responded that it will not sell energy to any country that participates in the demand for price caps. 

Russia has other customers. The Western leaders seem not to be able to grasp that fact! China has been a long time purchaser of Russian natural gas and has increased its imports. Turkey is perhaps going to be the “European hub” for Russian natural gas. Turkey has also started paying for some of its natural gas with the ruble. India also refuses to go along with the sanctions or the price caps. Trade between Russia and India will break another record for high volume this year, as it did last year. India is now Russia’s largest gas importer. Exports of fuel and petrochemicals from Russia to India will increase sixfold this year, and the purchase of Russian fertilizers will increase sevenfold. Those are very substantial increases obviously. As an aside, there are many reports on how European countries are getting around the sanctions and still buying Russian gas and oil. 

STATUS OF THE CONFLICT. Despite the billions supposedly sent to Ukraine for all kinds of offensive and defensive weapons, Ukraine remains largely in the dark–literally. Now with the FTX controversy, I think both Americans and Ukrainians wonder where all these billions have gone. Whose pockets are being lined with this money? Clearly the weapons sent to Ukraine have not stopped the Russians. 

I have mentioned several times since I started writing this blog that I  question whether U.S. leaders and their press are willfully ignorant of Russia or are they intellectually dishonest. I think it is both to some degree. But this conflict shows how ignorant they really are. Scott Ritter explained it in one statement quite some time ago: The thinking of these Western leaders is still stuck in the 1980s. They really believe Russia now is like the USSR was when it was collapsing. 

STATUS OF THE RUSSIAN FREEMANS.  I really appreciate the kind words and prayers for our situation here that some have messaged to me. We did not celebrate Thanksgiving as we did when Oksana was still with us. Gabriel had to go to school. Marina Grace is still struggling with a bad cough. She goes back to the doctor today. She feels fine. In a way, I think that works against her. I’m constantly telling her to slow down, don’t run, don’t talk. But Oksana’s mom stays in close contact with the teacher and goes over all her school work with her. 

I’ve gotten into a certain rhythm with washing clothes, dishes and with “house work” in general. I have not been doing my Russian lessons the last two weeks because my tutor’s boyfriend has been home on leave from Ukraine. I told her to spend all her time with him while he is home. He goes back to his military unit there today. So I hope to resume lessons this week. 

I admit it is lonely. As I said in an earlier blog, I don’t constantly think, “Oh, if only Oksana were here” like I did earlier. I have accepted her departure. But it’s tough not having a mother/wife in the home. As Scripture says, “It is the little foxes that spoil the vine.” It is the little things that seem to bother me the most. Going to get groceries or going to the open market is not as enjoyable now that I go alone. I have not watched television or sat down to listen to music since Oksana’s death. I really do not look forward to the holidays. In fact, I dread holidays now. 

I also admit there is a bit of fear. I’m a pensioner with kids, and thus the chances of me remarrying are not great. I am concerned about my kids’ future. I am a person of faith, however. One aspect of losing your spouse is realizing how helpless you were all along. Jesus didn’t say, “Don’t worry about tomorrow because it will be alright.” He said don’t worry about tomorrow because today has got enough troubles of its own. I keep telling myself that! 

The good news is that since Oksana passed away I have not been sick. I told someone that yesterday and added that since I just bragged about it I’ll probably be sick next week!  Nevertheless, I still go on my long walks, and I go out and gather wood, split it, and bring it in and build a fire in our furnace. The freezing weather and snow have not stopped this southern American as of yet. I am thankful. 

CONCLUSION. I admit I am not detached from what is going on with Russia, Ukraine and the U.S. I am not a completely objective observer. My late wife and I lived together for over 8 years in both the U.S. and Russia. During those 16 years we formed deep and abiding friendships with both Russians and Americans. We enjoyed both cultures. So, yes, I am quite angry with the so-called leaders of my own homeland for their lying and deception–and the deaths resulting from their blatant dishonesty. They are determined to turn the word “Russian” into a slur. For me, it is not just about politics. It is about whether and when I can go home again. I miss my American family. I miss the America I grew up in. 

ADDENDUM. 

Every blog I write now I feel like I have only scratched the surface. Therefore I have chosen three links that I believe would be helpful if you are interested in more in-depth analysis. 

The first is by Larry Johnson. He is a former CIA agent who writes about the ignorance rampant about Russia in this so-called intelligence agency. 

Star CIA Analysts Are Out of Touch With Reality When it Comes to Russia

This link is to a 30 minute interview with John Whitehead done a few years ago. It was sent to me by one of my former students this past week. Whitehead is an attorney who specializes in constitutional law, human rights, and social freedoms. His explanations of the impact of the Patriot Act and other U.S. laws are quite informative–and quite scary. 

Unfortunately WordPress would not copy the third link. It is to a book review by Philip Pilkington. The article is, “How Russia Views America.” I think you can find it with a google search.